# Chile's Democratic Crossroads: The 2025 Presidential Election **Date de l'événement :** 16/12/2025 * Publié le 16/12/2025 ### Date 16/12/2025 ## Chapô **Last Sunday, Chile’s presidential election marked a decisive rightward turn with the victory of José Antonio Kast. Set against rising crime, immigration anxieties, economic strain, and growing disillusionment with the outgoing president’s reform agenda, the vote came to be seen as a referendum on competing diagnoses of Chile’s malaise. Luca Venga, a young researcher at Sciences Po (CEE), analyses the result and situates it within a broader shift to the right across Latin America, with potentially significant geopolitical consequences.** ## Corps du texte On December 14, 2025, Chileans returned to the polls to decide between two starkly opposing visions of their country's future – and, to some extent, of their country’s past. The runoff election pitted Jeannette Jara, a Communist Party member and former Labor Minister under outgoing President Gabriel Boric, and José Antonio Kast, a hard-right Republican Party leader, [with Kast emerging as the winner](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kde07lvvro), in an electoral clash that represented more than a political choice between increasingly common polarized camps — it crystallized Chile's profound identity crisis six years after the estallido social (or “Social Outburst”, a series of massive demonstrations in 2019-2020), and represented the crowning achievement of a populist radical right party in a historically unwelcoming context ([Díaz, Kaltwasser & Zanotti 2023](https://www.jbe-platform.com/content/journals/10.1075/jlp.22131.dia)). The immediate antecedent to the runoff election is constituted by the first round that took place on November 16, and produced somewhat surprising [results](https://elecciones.servel.cl/). While Jara edged ahead with 26.8% of the vote, emerging as the nominal winner, Kast secured 23.9; populist outsider Franco Parisi captured a surprising 19.7 %; libertarian Johannes Kaiser took 14 %; while traditional centre-right candidate Evelyn Matthei managed only 12.5 %. The margin separating Jara from Kast was made up of less than 400,000 ballots, and the remaining 49 % of votes were fragmented among right-wing challengers: when combined, right-leaning candidates captured approximately 70 % of first-round votes, setting the stage for Kast’s eventual success in the second round. While the introduction of compulsory voting introduced an element of uncertainty ([with some arguing that it might push traditionally disengaged voters to cast a preference, thus upending any predictions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/14/chile-presidential-election)) the election came to be seen as a referendum on competing diagnoses of Chile's problems and visions for addressing them, with Kast’s vision emerging as the most compelling one.   Chile has long been considered one of Latin America's most stable democracies and prosperous economies, but in recent years has faced rising crime, relative economic stagnation, and deep political polarization, which has likely been exacerbated by [two failed attempts at constitutional reform under President Boric](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-chile-rejects-second-constitutional-rewrite/). The results of the runoff election put an end, for the time being, to the outgoing President’s leftward experiment, [and signal instead a pivot to the right which is in tune with regional tendencies](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/14/world/americas/chile-election-kast.html) (most notably in neighbouring Argentina and Bolivia). But what was the context behind the election, and what issues weighted most heavily on the final result? And, crucially, what might Kast’s Presidency look like? A regional shift to the right ----------------------------- Choosing where to begin an historical analysis of the Chilean context is a difficult task – the Pinochet regime, for example, still looms large over electoral debates ([with Kast praising aspects of the former general-turned-President’s rule](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/15/world/americas/chile-kast-right-wing-movement.html)); but the October 2019 protests that came to be known, collectively, as the estallido social represent a useful starting point. The protests began in response to a Santiago Metro fare increase, but quickly mushroomed into the largest demonstrations since Chile's return to democracy, as millions took to the streets to protest inequality, expensive healthcare and education, inadequate pensions, and a generalized lack of support in a very unequal, market-oriented economy (see for example [Cox, González, & Le Foulon 2024](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1866802X231203747) or [Medel, Somma, & Donoso 2023](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-latin-american-studies/article/abs/nexus-between-protest-and-electoral-participation-explaining-chiles-exceptionalism/631E14440C0CCB5F88720850315F2C0D) for a description and analysis of the protests and their impact on Chilean politics). Police responses were often heavy-handed, but the sheer number and intensity of the protests eventually forced then-President Sebastián Piñera to agree to a process for drafting a new constitution as a means to overhaul the country’s functioning. The estallido social created the conditions for Boric's 2021 election victory, with Kast losing the runoff vote.  The Boric administration succeeded on some counts, and fell short on others. This is likely to have exacerbated feelings of rejection of the incumbent coalition, [damaging Jara’s candidacy by association](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/14/world/americas/chile-election-kast.html), and boosting the results of some maverick candidates that pollsters had generally dismissed. Moreover, Chile's election unfolds amid a broader regional shift towards the right. After a "pink tide" of left-wing victories in the early 2020s – including Boric in Chile, Gustavo Petro in Colombia, Castillo in Peru, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's return in Brazil – the region seems now to be heading in the opposite direction: Argentina's Javier Milei, elected in late 2023, has won on a platform of right-wing libertarianism and has implemented radical austerity measures; in Bolivia, voters punished the Movement Toward Socialism and elected a conservative opposition candidate for the first time in nearly 20 years, and in Ecuador voters reconfirmed their trust in a right-wing leader promising a gang crackdown. Chile is clearly not immune to these regional and global dynamics, and indeed [Kast placed his candidacy firmly within this context](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/15/world/americas/chile-kast-right-wing-movement.html). Public security and immigration: the key topics ----------------------------------------------- More than any other issue, [public security has dominated the 2025 presidential campaign](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/14/world/americas/chile-election-kast.html). Chile, traditionally one of the continent’s safest countries by many metrics, experienced a surge in crime following the COVID-19 pandemic, [with the homicide rate peaking at 7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2022 before declining slightly](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=CL). In spite of this improvement, the rate remains more than double what it was in 2014 (2 per 100,000), and the perception of insecurity has worsened significantly, [reaching a record 90.6 %, in 2022](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/law-and-disorder-unenviable-dilemma-facing-chiles-police-forces#:~:text=In%20November%202023%2C%20the%20national,by%20the%20South%20American%20country'.), according to the National Urban Citizen Security Survey. Kidnappings, extortions, and violent robberies have clearly left a strong impression and led many to favour a tough-on-crime approach. While both Jara and Kast have responded to security anxieties with tough rhetoric and promises of an overhaul of the security apparatus, the winner of the election clearly held the upper hand on these themes. The issue of immigration, which has emerged as a flashpoint in Chilean politics, has been closely linked to that of crime in much of the country’s political discourse. From 2018 to 2024, migration to Chile rose 47%, with immigrants now accounting for 10% of the population—approximately 2 million people, and Venezuelan immigrants (a number of which are undocumented) represent the largest portion of this growth, rising from 345,000 to 729,000. An AtlasIntel survey reported that [more than 90 % of Chileans believe that the country necessitates a more restrictive immigration policy](https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/nearly-everybody-in-chile-wants-more-restrictions-on-immigration.phtml), and [nearly 70% of Chileans believe that immigration leads to increased crime](https://www.cepchile.cl/encuesta/encuesta-cep-n-90/), according to a Center for Public Studies survey. Kast, following and shaping these trends, [has made immigration restriction the centrepiece of his security platform](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/14/world/americas/chile-election-kast.html), promising to build new defences along Chile's border with Bolivia to keep out migrants and organized crime members. Interestingly, even Jara promised to hire more police and deploy armed forces to borders, which was seen as a significant hardening from traditional left-wing support for immigrant rights.  Economic concerns remain a powerful undercurrent shaping voter sentiment too. [Chile's unemployment rate stood at 8.4 % just before the election, growth, at 2.5 %, has been heavily concentrated in the mining sector, and inflation remains above 4 % in 2025](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CHL), placing the finances of many middle and working class citizens under strain. Kast has focused on the country’s fiscal deficit and on proposing austerity, pro-market measures that he claims will attract investment. Lastly, and relatedly, Gabriel Boric’s legacy needs to be analysed too, for the role it likely came to play in the runoff. Boric came to power in 2021 vowing to "[bury neolibealism](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/12/20/chiles-new-president-promises-to-bury-neoliberalism)" and implement sweeping progressive reforms addressing the inequalities exposed by the 2019 uprising. A former student activist and congressman, Boric represented a generational shift in Chilean politics — the first president born after the return to democracy in 1990 – and achieved significant results, even if he fell short of his initial ambitions. Jara has attempted to distance herself from Boric's failures while revendicating her successes as Labour minister (chief among them [the reduction of weekly working hours, from 45 to 40](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-approves-bill-cutting-work-week-40-hours-45-2023-04-11/)), but it seems likely that voters felt the need for a clear break with the policies of the past years. A look ahead ------------ The elections for all 155 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 23 of 50 Senate ones that took place alongside the first round produced [mixed results](https://elecciones.servel.cl/): while in the lower chamber Jara's Unity for Chile coalition secured 61 seats — remaining a significant force — the right-wing / far right Change for Chile coalition (which includes Kast's and Kaiser's parties) made notable gains. Crucially, neither bloc holds the constitutional majority needed to pass major legislation, making Parisi's 14-seat PDG (Party of the People) delegation potentially decisive. This fragmentation means that Kast will not be able to implement his campaign promises without negotiating with opposition forces, and the polarization that has defined this campaign suggests such negotiations will be extremely difficult. Kast’s presidency, however, will no doubt accelerate Latin America's broader rightward shift and yield significant geopolitical implications. Chile, in fact, is a key copper producer on the world stage, and control of this strategic resource matters greatly in the context of U.S.-China competition and the AI boom. The new leadership’s potential interest in American investment could shift Chile's foreign policy alignment, particularly if Kast follows through on his expressed admiration for U.S. President Trump and strengthens bilateral relations. **Licence :** `#CC-BY-ND (Attribution, Pas de modification)` ### Thématique `#Démocratie` **Langue :** `#Anglais` --- ### Navigation pour IA - [Index de tous les contenus](https://conference.sciencespo.fr/llms.txt) - [Plan du site (Sitemap)](https://conference.sciencespo.fr/sitemap.xml) - [Retour à l'accueil](https://conference.sciencespo.fr/)